Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of March 13th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks tumbled last week as investors reconsidered their interest rate expectations after Fed Chair Powell’s Congressional testimony that rates may need to go higher. Stocks also were rattled when a west coast bank was placed into receivership on Friday following a run on deposits.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.44%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.55%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 4.71% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.37%.

Rate Fears, Bank Scare
Congressional testimony on Tuesday by Fed Chair Jerome Powell that interest rates may require a higher increase faster than planned unnerved investors, dimming the hopes of any pause in rate hikes this summer. After stabilizing the following day, stocks trended lower as the financial sector came under pressure. The lower move was triggered by a specialty …

The Weekly Update

Week of February 6th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A late-week surge, triggered by reassuring Fed-speak, propelled stocks higher last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.75%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.90%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 2.58% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.81%.

Stocks Resume Climb
After rebounding to start the week, stocks weakened following higher inflation numbers out of Europe and higher-than-expected manufacturing activity.

Stocks continued their decline into early Thursday following a report of higher labor costs and low initial jobless claims. But stocks staged an afternoon relief rally on Thursday following comments by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic that he was “still very firmly” supportive of increasing rates in quarter-point increments. The climb in stocks was remarkable, given that yields on 10-year Treasuries reached their highest level since November. Undeterred by a …

The Weekly Update

Week of February 27th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Concerns over a firmer monetary policy were heightened by fresh economic data, touching off a climb in bond yields and a slide in stock prices last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dipped 2.67%. The Nasdaq Composite index sagged 3.33% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, retreated 1.23%.

Stocks Slide
Stocks struggled last week, buffeted by growing fears of further Fed tightening and disappointing forecasts from two major retailers that called into question the consumer’s health. The release of the minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) last meeting did little to assuage investor worries. Reflecting these concerns of a more aggressive Fed was that by Thursday, traders were pricing in a 27% chance that the Fed might lift rates by a half-percentage point …

The Weekly Update

Week of February 21st, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Growing concerns about further interest rate hikes, prompted by fresh economic data, reversed early-week gains and left stocks mixed for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 fell 0.28%. The Nasdaq Composite index advanced 0.59% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.52%.

Rate Concerns Weigh On Stocks
Stocks opened last week higher on investor hopes that a continued cooling in inflation might support a more dovish Fed. A higher-than-expected rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and strong retail sales in January initially did little to dent that enthusiasm, as stocks posted solid gains through Wednesday’s close.

But that optimism faded on Thursday as a surprising rise in producer prices and another decline in initial jobless claims triggered worries the Fed would stay the course …

The Weekly Update

Week of February 13th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks drifted lower as a week of mixed earnings reports and resurgent worries over Fed monetary policy dragged on investor sentiment.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.17%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 1.11%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 2.41%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dipped 0.30%.

Rally Stalls
Stocks struggled last week, weighed down by rising bond yields, a firming U.S. dollar, geopolitical tensions, and generally unimpressive corporate earnings reports. Perhaps the most consequential overhang was the potential direction of monetary policy.

Initially, traders were relieved by comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell earlier in the week that he had not struck a more aggressive tone following the strong employment report released after the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The relief was short-lived, however, as anxieties over future monetary policy resurfaced, …

The Weekly Update

Week of February 6th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks were mixed last week following better-than-expected corporate reports and increasing optimism over a slowdown in interest rates.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged lower, slipping -0.15%. The Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 1.62% while the Nasdaq Composite index led, picking up 3.31%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 1.16%.

Rally Continues
Strong earnings reports and encouraging inflation data lifted stocks ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) decision on Wednesday to hike interest rates by 25 basis points. Markets rallied following the announcement, relieved that the increase was in line with expectations and buoyed by post-meeting comments in which Fed Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged the disinflationary forces in place.

Fresh earnings reports fueled further gains, with positive earnings surprises from several big-name technology companies that benefited the larger universe of Nasdaq-listed high-growth companies. …

The Weekly Update

Week of January 30th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks added to their early 2023 gains amid a busy stream of mixed corporate earnings results and conflicting economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 1.81%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 2.47%. The Nasdaq Composite index rose 4.32% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, increased by 1.14%.

Stocks Advance
With the backdrop of earnings reports and conflicting economic data, stocks climbed higher on cooling inflation, continued economic resilience, and fourth-quarter corporate earnings results that, while underwhelming, did not appear as bad as many had feared.

There was enough new economic data to support both the “recession is coming” and the “soft landing” camps. It was corporate results and continued labor market strength, along with a solid, if weakening, fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth number, however, that raised investors’ hopes that …

The Weekly Update

Week of January 23rd, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks showed mixed results last week as recession fears resurfaced in response to weak economic data and a tepid start to a new corporate earnings season.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average skidded 2.70%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 declined 0.66%. But the Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.55% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 0.50%.

Mixed Economic Data
Stocks weakened to start the week amid discouraging corporate earnings and troubling economic data. Disappointing retail sales and manufacturing reports sparked concerns that the Fed may have gone too far in hiking rates, while a drop in initial jobless claims diminished chances of a near-term pause in rate hikes. Welcome news from two big technology names on Friday powered a strong rally that mixed significant indices.

The start of the earnings season was a drag …

The Weekly Update

Week of January 17th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks rallied last week thanks to fresh confirmation of inflation’s cooling trend and growing optimism that an inflation slowdown may provide the Fed with space to ease up on future rate hikes.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 2.00%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 2.67%. The Nasdaq Composite index surged 4.82% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, jumped 3.32%.

Improving Sentiment
Investor sentiment came into the new year weighed down by recession fears and concerns that Fed rate hikes may “go higher for longer.” Last week a different narrative emerged. Sustained declines in inflation, a rate hike cycle nearing an end, and a resilient economy that may avoid recession resulted in a broad-based rally.

Moderating inflation was evident in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Thursday, which, in combination with …

The Weekly Update

Week of January 9th, 2023
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A strong Friday rally triggered by fresh signs of moderating inflation pushed stocks into positive territory to begin the new year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.46%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 advanced 1.45%. The Nasdaq Composite index gained 0.98%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, added 0.90%.

Stocks Rally
A new year did little to change the market’s overall tenor as trading remained choppy. The first two trading sessions of a holiday-shortened week saw major averages swing wildly between gains and losses as investors balanced an improving outlook on inflation against concerns of faltering economic growth. Mega-cap technology and other high-growth names endured the brunt of the selling pressure.

Stocks took a decisive turn lower Thursday on strong private payroll growth and declining jobless claims, which heightened fears that the Fed would need to …