Major Indices Move Lower

The Weekly Update

Week of November 25th, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks declined last week as mixed signals emerged about the progress of U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The three major Wall Street benchmarks all took weekly losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.46%; the S&P 500, 0.33%, the Nasdaq Composite, 0.25%. Also pulling back, the MSCI EAFE index, tracking developed stock markets outside the U.S. and Canada, retreated 0.69%.

Nothing Conclusive Regarding Trade
As the market week ended, there was still haziness surrounding the state of U.S.-China trade discussions. Were negotiators on the cusp of a phase-one deal or further away?

Friday, President Trump told reporters that a deal was “very close,” but Chinese President Xi Jinping said that his country could decide to “fight back” against certain terms. Last week, a bill intended to support Hong Kong protesters advanced through Congress, and that development was not taken well in Beijing.

The Fed Assesses the Economy
Federal Reserve officials gathered for their October meeting “generally saw the economic outlook as positive” according to minutes from the central bank’s October monetary policy meeting released Wednesday. Some of them termed the economy “resilient.”

The minutes also noted that the Fed would wait to assess the impact of its recent interest rate cuts and that any upcoming policy decisions might be data dependent.

Strength in the Housing Sector
Existing home sales improved 1.9% last month, by the estimation of the National Association of Realtors. Year-over-year, sales were up 4.6% through October, and the median sale price was $270,900, 6.2% above where it was 12 months earlier.

Wednesday, the Census Bureau said that single-family home construction increased for a fifth straight month in October. In addition, the pace of building permits for new homes hit a level unseen since 2007.

What’s Ahead
This will be an abbreviated trading week on Wall Street. U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Thanksgiving Day (Thursday), and then reopen for a half-day session on Friday.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: The Census Bureau issues its latest new home sales snapshot, and the Conference Board releases its November Consumer Confidence Index.
Wednesday: October consumer spending numbers appear from the Department of Commerce, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes a new estimate of third-quarter economic expansion.

Source: Econoday, November 22, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Monday: Agilent (A), Hewlett-Packard (HPE), Palo Alto Networks (PANW)
Tuesday: Analog Devices (ADI), Dell Technologies (DELL), Vmware (VMW)
Wednesday: Deere & Co. (DE)

Source: Zacks, November 22, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data collected from Investors FastTrack software.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data
https://quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/dow-futures-amid-us-china-trade-uncertainty.html
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/22/hong-kong-rights-bill-unlikely-to-derail-us-china-trade-talks.html
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-worries-about-economy-had-eased-a-bit-2019-11-20
https://www.inman.com/2019/11/21/existing-home-sales-pick-up-in-october-after-slump-nar/
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/permits-for-new-home-construction-hits-post-recession-record-high-in-october-2019-11-19
Major Indices Move Lower2019-11-25T13:48:01-05:00

A New Dow Milestone

The Weekly Update

Week of November 18th, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stock benchmarks were little changed for much of last week, but a rally occurred Friday after news broke that the U.S. and China could be closing in on the first phase of a new trade pact.

At Friday’s close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average crossed the 28,000 level. The Dow rose 1.17% for the week, outgaining the S&P 500 (which advanced 0.89%) and the Nasdaq Composite (which added 0.77%). The MSCI EAFE index, representing developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.77%.

Will There Be a Trade Breakthrough?
Friday, Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross told the media that “in all likelihood,” a phase-one trade deal between China and the U.S. would presently happen, stating that the talks were “down to the last details.” Thursday evening, White House economic adviser Larry Kudlow expressed similar optimism, noting that negotiations were “coming down to the short strokes.”

That said, the Wall Street Journal reported last week that President Trump is not yet committed to signing a phase-one trade deal. Secretary Ross noted that such an agreement would be “relatively limited in scope.”

Consumers Boost Their Buying
Retail sales advanced 0.3% in October, according to the Department of Commerce. That surpassed the 0.2% gain forecast by economists polled by MarketWatch. Even so, households bought fewer big-ticket items than they did in September.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Wednesday: Minutes from the October Federal Reserve meeting appear.
Thursday: The National Association of Realtors presents data on October existing home sales.
Friday: The University of Michigan publishes its final Consumer Sentiment Index for November (an assessment of consumer confidence).

Source: Econoday, November 15, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday: Home Depot (HD), Medtronic (MDT), TJX Companies (TJX)
Wednesday: Lowe’s (LOW), Target (TGT)
Thursday: Intuit (INTU), Ross Stores (ROST)

Source: Zacks, November 15, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data collected from Investors FastTrack software.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data
https://quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-15/kudlow-says-phase-one-china-deal-down-to-the-short-strokes-k2zgbx0k
https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/u-s-china-trade-deal-near-but-trump-not-signing-yet
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-retail-sales-rebound-in-october-but-a-small-group-of-stores-reap-most-of-the-gains-2019-11-15
A New Dow Milestone2019-11-18T12:38:40-05:00

Dow, S&P 500 Extend Win Streaks

The Weekly Update

Week of November 11th, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Domestic and international stocks rose last week. Risk appetite outweighed concerns about the state of U.S.-China trade discussions.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq Composite, S&P 500, and MSCI EAFE all ended the week with gains. Blue chips led the way, as the Dow added 1.22%. The Nasdaq improved 1.06%; the S&P, 0.85%. The EAFE, tracking developed stock markets away from North America, was up 0.76%. The Dow recorded its third straight weekly gain; the S&P, its fifth.

Will Tariffs Phase Out or Remain?
Thursday, a spokesman for China’s commerce ministry said that U.S. and Chinese trade representatives had “agreed to remove” existing tariffs in “phases,” while working toward a new trade deal.

On Friday morning, President Trump told the media that he had not agreed to any such condition. President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are still expected to sign off on “phase one” of a new bilateral trade agreement

Service Sector Activity Picks Up
A closely watched index of U.S. business activity posted an October gain. The Institute for Supply Management’s Purchasing Managers Index for non-manufacturing firms rose nearly two points last month to 54.7. ISM also noted an October increase for new orders.

As most U.S. companies provide services rather than manufacture products, this news is encouraging and suggests more momentum in that sector.

Final Thought
Monday is Veterans Day; the stock market will be open, but the bond market, plus all federal government offices, will be closed.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Wednesday: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell begins two days of testimony on the country’s economic outlook in Congress, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics presents new inflation data in the October Consumer Price Index.
Friday: October retail sales figures arrive from the Census Bureau.

Source: Econoday, November 8, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Tuesday: Praxair (LIN), Tyson Foods (TSN)
Wednesday: Cisco (CSCO)
Thursday: Applied Materials (AMAT), Nvidia (NVDA), Walmart (WMT)

Source: Zacks, November 8, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data collected from Investors FastTrack software.
https://www.wsj.com/market-data
https://quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-bounce-around-as-wall-street-weighs-china-us-tariff-rollback-talk-2019-11-08
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/08/trump-says-he-has-not-agreed-to-roll-back-tariffs-on-china-after-week-of-trade-optimism.html
https://www.briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/napmserv.htm
Dow, S&P 500 Extend Win Streaks2019-11-11T13:10:09-05:00

The Financial Considerations of Gifting

The Financial Considerations of Gifting

The holidays are just around the corner and 2019 is coming to a close. If financial gifting around the holidays is on your to-do list, we invite you to grab a copy of a recent article we published. http://bit.ly/2oSvajh

The Financial Considerations of Gifting2019-11-08T12:09:56-05:00

More Historic Highs

The Weekly Update

Week of November 4th, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
A better-than-forecast jobs report prompted a stock market rally Friday, two days after traders witnessed another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended the week at historic peaks, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled less than 12 points under its all-time record close. The Nasdaq rose 1.74% for the week; the S&P gained 1.47%. The Dow added 1.44%. MSCI’s EAFE benchmark, which measures developed stock market performance outside the U.S. and Canada, improved 0.58%.

Economy Adds 128,000 Jobs in October
This net increase far surpassed the gain of 85,000 projected by a Bloomberg poll of economists. These job gains occurred even as last month’s General Motors strike impacted hiring in the manufacturing sector.

Unemployment rose slightly to 3.6% in October, an effect of more people entering the job market. Likewise, the U-6 rate, counting both unemployed and underemployed, Americans ticked up to 7.0%.

The Fed’s Latest Interest Rate Decision
Last week, the central bank made its third quarter-point rate cut since July, leaving the target range for the federal funds rate at 1.50-1.75%.

Something was missing from the latest Fed policy statement. Since June, a passage had noted that the Fed was ready to “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.” In the latest statement, that language disappeared. At a press conference Wednesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented that Fed officials “see the current stance of monetary policy as likely to remain appropriate.”

Where Trade Talks with China Stand
There were further negotiations between U.S. and Chinese officials Friday, and China’s commerce ministry announced that both sides had “reached consensus on principles” integral to the first phase of a new trade pact. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer noted only that the latest round of conversation had brought “progress in a variety of areas.”

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA
Tuesday: The Institute for Supply Management presents its latest Purchasing Managers Index for the U.S. service sector, gauging business activity and new orders.
Friday: The University of Michigan’s preliminary November Consumer Sentiment Index appears, measuring consumer confidence levels.

Source: Econoday, November 1, 2019
The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS
Monday: Marriott International (MAR), Sysco (SYY), Uber (UBER)
Tuesday: Allergan (AGN), Toyota (TM)
Wednesday: CVS Health (CVS), Qualcomm (QCOM)
Thursday: Booking Holdings (BKNG), Walt Disney Co. (DIS)
Friday: Duke Energy (DUK), Enbridge (ENB), Honda (HMC)

Source: Zacks, November 1, 2019
Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Any investment should be consistent with your objectives, time frame and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Data collected from Investors FastTrack software.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/sp-500-nasdaq-set-records-on-jobs-data-trade-headway-idUSKBN1XB3ZD
https://www.wsj.com/market-data
https://quotes.wsj.com/index/XX/990300/historical-prices
https://time.com/5716189/us-adds-128000-jobs-october-2019/
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/30/fed-decision-interest-rates-cut.html
https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/us-china-trade-talks-reach-consensus-on-principles?cmpid=prn_investors
More Historic Highs2019-11-04T13:42:34-05:00