Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of June 3, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks struggled during a 4-day market week as the U.S.-China trade standoff continued to weigh on the minds of market participants. From the Friday, May 24 close to the Friday, May 31 close, the S&P 500 retreated 2.62%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.41%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 3.01%. The MSCI EAFE index of overseas stocks dipped just 1.47% in a week.

Trade is dominating the conversation in the financial markets, with developments steadily unfolding. Wednesday, China’s state media suggested that the country could soon cut off exports of rare earths to the U.S. Late Thursday, the Trump administration announced 5% tariffs on all imports from Mexico, effective June 10; these taxes could rise in the coming months.

Meanwhile, on Main Street…
The Conference Board’s consumer confidence index soared to 134.1 in May, its highest reading since …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 28, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks drifted lower last week as investors considered the possibility that the world’s two largest economies might take some time to resolve key trade issues.

The S&P 500 retreated 1.17%; the Nasdaq Composite, 2.29%; the Dow Jones Industrial Average, 0.69%. The concern over trade was felt elsewhere: the overseas developed markets benchmark, the MSCI EAFE, also lost 1.41% in five sessions.

Market Waits for Further Trade Talk Cues
A compromise on tariffs between the U.S. and China did not seem forthcoming last week. Negotiations appeared stalled. Regardless, President Trump and Chinese President Xi are slated to meet at June’s G20 summit in Japan.

The Department of Commerce has effectively banned U.S. companies from doing business with Chinese tech giant Huawei, a major global player in 5G technology. Some analysts think China may respond with retaliatory measures.

Leading Retailers …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 20, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks fell sharply at the start of last week over trade tensions, then recovered with help from strong earnings and indications that U.S.-China trade talks would continue. Even so, the major indices had a down week. The S&P 500 lost 0.76%, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.27%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.69%.

In contrast, the MSCI EAFE benchmark for international stocks rose 0.19%.

The Latest Trade Developments
A broad selloff occurred Monday after China announced it would respond to increased U.S. tariffs by boosting its own import taxes on $60 billion of U.S. products. Friday morning, the Street breathed a sigh of relief as the Trump administration decided to delay 25% tariffs planned for imported cars and car parts; they had been slated to take effect on May 18. Just hours later, President …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 13, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
As we noted recently, Wall Street has a wandering eye. Last week, it focused on the new tariff threats in the ongoing U.S.-China trade dispute. Stocks fell across five trading sessions: the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 2.12%, the S&P 500, 2.18%; the Nasdaq Composite, 3.03%. International stocks also fell: the MSCI EAFE index declined 3.06%.

Earnings and big-name initial public offerings mattered little last week. Traders were more concerned about how consumers and corporations might be affected by higher import taxes in future quarters.

Tariffs Increase
At 12:01 a.m. Friday, duties on $200 billion worth of Chinese products coming to the U.S. rose from 10% to 25%. Just days earlier, President Trump had tweeted that the U.S. might also tax another $325 billion of Chinese imports, mainly consumer goods.

While the proposed new taxes might take …

The Weekly Update

Week of May 6, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks were up and down last week, and the three major benchmarks ended up little changed after five trading days. The S&P 500 rose 0.20% for the week; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.22%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.14%.

The MSCI EAFE index, a benchmark for international stocks, declined 0.21%.

The Fed Emphasizes Patience
The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its May meeting. Its May 1 policy statement noted “solid” job growth and economic activity, but only tame inflation pressure.

While the Fed was not expected to make a move, some investors wondered if its latest policy statement might hint at the possibility of a rate cut later this year. No such hint appeared. Fed chair Jerome Powell told the media Wednesday that “we don’t see a strong reason for moving in one direction or …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 29, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks returned to record territory, with both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite closing at historic highs. The S&P gained 1.20% for the week; the Nasdaq, 1.85%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lagged, losing 0.06%. The MSCI EAFE index of international stocks lost 0.52%.

The S&P took only 17 weeks to fully rebound from its December low.

A Shift in Focus
Last month, Wall Street fixated on trade, reacting to even the slightest hint of progress in U.S.-China negotiations. This month, the trade talks have taken a back seat, and the fixation is on earnings.

Anxieties about a possible earnings recession may be fading. So far, first-quarter results for S&P 500 firms are 5.3% above expectations; that compares to a 5-year average of 4.8%.

At some point, trade talk will come back, or other developments will lead …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 22, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
A short and relatively placid trading week wrapped up Thursday, with the major indices turning in mixed performances. The S&P 500 retreated 0.08%, the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.17%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.56%. The MSCI EAFE index, tracking foreign stocks in developed countries, added 0.65%.

Nothing really catalytic emerged to drive the market last week, and volumes were low.

Earnings Season Update
More than 78% of S&P 500 firms reporting so far this earnings season have surpassed analyst expectations, according to FactSet. Since guidance tends to be conservative, there is the possibility that more companies will beat forecasts than expected.

The initial public offering market remained strong. Two high-profile technology companies came public on Thursday and were met with enthusiasm from investors. As mentioned in recent weeks, 2019 could be a banner year for …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 15, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks broke out of a narrow range on Friday following news that two major banks grew their bottom line in the first quarter. For the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.79%; the Nasdaq Composite, 0.91%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average improved 0.50%. Turning to overseas stocks, the MSCI EAFE index declined 0.09%.

The market spent much of the week in a lull as investors waited for earnings season to begin. Wall Street is paying close attention to both guidance and profit margins.

Big Banks Post Solid Results
Friday, Wells Fargo and JPMorgan Chase both reported Q1 profit growth, and JPMorgan Chase announced record revenue.

This was welcome news. Analysts have tempered some of their expectations entering this earnings season, recognizing that slowing global growth, tariffs, and dollar strength may be affecting corporate profits. The dollar rallied 6.2% …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 8, 2019
By Christopher T .Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street
Stocks just posted their second straight weekly gain. Investors were encouraged by the latest jobs report and new signs of progress on a U.S.-China trade deal. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 1.17% in five trading days; the S&P 500, 1.27%; the Nasdaq Composite, 1.72%. The MSCI EAFE index of international stocks improved 1.84%.

The economy generated 196,000 net new jobs in March, according to the Department of Labor. Monthly job growth averaged 180,000 in the first quarter. Both President Trump and Chinese Vice Premier Liu He told the media last week that the U.S. and China were getting closer to a new trade accord.

Meanwhile, a week into the second quarter, another earnings season is about to unfold. As we await results, we will take a brief look back at what happened in the …

The Weekly Update

Week of April 1, 2019
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The Week on Wall Street

Stocks ended last week higher as volatility slowed, completing their best quarter since 2009. A Friday tweet from Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin encouraged investors, referring to “constructive” discussions in the ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations.

The S&P 500 gained 1.27% for the week. The Dow Industrials and Nasdaq Composite both exceeded that advance: the Dow rose 1.60%; the Nasdaq, 1.42%.

Foreign shares went the other way. The MSCI EAFE index following international stocks retreated 0.91%.

2019 Could Be a Big Year for IPOs

One of the ride-share pioneers, Lyft, closed on its initial public offering (IPO) on Friday, and a glance at the IPO calendar shows that as many as 226 companies could soon go public, with Uber and Airbnb possibly among them.

This IPO wave may be a signal of a market top, or it may point to …