Weekly Update

The Weekly Update

Week of October 10th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A powerful two-day stock rebound cemented a positive week for investors as a new trading month began.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 added 1.51%. The Nasdaq Composite index increased 0.73% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 3.42%.

Stocks Start Strongly
Stocks opened the week posting their best two-day rally since March 2020, as the U.K. prime minister’s decision to reverse a tax cut proposal that had upended financial markets the previous week lifted investors.

Falling yields further lifted investor enthusiasm, as did new economic data indicating a cooling economy. Losses in the last two days erased much of the gains as concerns about higher rates and recession once again moved front and center. The selling pressure was due to a stream of hawkish comments by …

The Weekly Update

Week of October 3rd, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Rising recession fears and uncertainty in the bond and currency markets sent stocks to new 2022 lows last week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 2.92%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 slumped 2.91%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 2.69%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.94%.

A Tumultuous Week
U.S. stocks were under pressure all week due to recession concerns and unsettled trading in the bond and currency markets. This stress followed economic steps out of the U.K. During the previous week, the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates, and its prime minister announced unfunded tax cuts that the markets interpreted as inflationary.

U.S. bond yields rose early last week, sending stocks lower until Wednesday’s rally following news that the BOE would buy U.K. government bonds. U.S. stocks resumed their descent the following two …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 26th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Last week, Fed Chair Powell said the U.S. would not tame inflation without economic pain. This week heightened recession fears and sent stocks broadly lower.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 4.00%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 5.07% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, declined 3.05%.

Yields Surge, Stocks Tumble
Last week’s meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) proved unsettling for the financial markets. It wasn’t only the widely expected announcement of another rate hike but a more hawkish message that rates may be heading higher for longer than anticipated. Fed officials indicated that any policy change might be further off than investors had contemplated.

The latest rate hike caused bond yields to rise, with two-year and ten-year Treasury note yields touching levels not …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 19th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A hotter-than-expected inflation report sent stocks sharply lower last week as investors faced the prospect of more aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve for perhaps a longer period.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 4.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 4.77%. The Nasdaq Composite index dropped 5.48% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, dipped 1.78%.

Inflation Deflates Market
Stocks suffered their worst day in more than two years last Tuesday as markets were caught off-guard by a higher-than-anticipated August inflation report.

Markets expected the August report to show a substantial cooling of inflation, potentially allowing the Fed to ease up on interest rate hikes. Instead, the elevated inflation number not only undercut those easing hopes but raised the possibility of a more significant rate hike. On Tuesday, traders assigned a …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 9th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

In a holiday-shortened week of trading, stocks posted healthy gains despite more tough talk on monetary policy from Fed officials.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 2.66%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 gained 3.65%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 4.14% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.26%.

Stocks Rise
Stocks fell coming off the Labor Day weekend, dragged down by news that Russia was cutting off natural gas supplies to its European customers. Stocks also were under pressure due to a surprisingly strong report on business conditions, which heightened fears of continued Fed hawkishness.

Sentiment quickly improved as bond yields turned lower and oil prices fell. Investors reacted positively to comments by Fed Vice Chair Lael Brainard, who reiterated the Fed’s commitment to quashing inflation while acknowledging the risks of going …

The Weekly Update

Week of September 5th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

The overhang of Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech the previous week carried over into last week as investors recalibrated stock valuations amid a seemingly more assertive monetary policy stance.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 2.99%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 stumbled 3.29%. The Nasdaq Composite index lost 4.21%. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slid 4.90%.

Stocks Extend Losses
Investors remained unnerved by the aggressive tone of Jerome Powell’s speech and subsequent comments from Fed officials suggesting a higher rate hike than the market expected at the Fed two-day meeting ending September 21. The probability of a 75-basis point hike in September rose to nearly 65%, up from just 28% a month ago.

Stocks moved steadily lower before finding some footing on Thursday. Friday’s employment report appeared to strike a “goldilocks” note (i.e., labor …

The Weekly Update

Week of August 29th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

A comprehensive sell-off on Friday following comments by Fed Chair Jerome Powell drove stocks to losses for the week.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled 4.22%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dropped 4.04%. The Nasdaq Composite index fell 4.44% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost 1.10%.

Under Pressure
Stocks dropped on Friday following Powell’s remarks reiterating the Fed’s inflation-fighting resolve. While his comments did not break new ground, markets reacted severely, perhaps on worries that interest rate hikes may continue into next year.

After starting the week sharply lower on renewed rising interest rates and economic slowdown fears, markets staged a modest turnaround beginning mid-week. Stocks rallied on Thursday, sparked by a revised Gross Domestic Product estimate showing the economy’s shrinking less than initially estimated. Thursday’s rally also got a boost from …

The Weekly Update

Week of August 22nd, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks tumbled on Friday, sending stocks to a weekly loss after an otherwise quiet August week of trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped -0.16%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 1.21%. The Nasdaq Composite index declined 2.62% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, fell 0.88%.

Summer Rally Hits Pause Button
The market rally that began in mid-June paused last week. Despite the week’s losses, stocks exhibited resiliency in the face of a string of troubling economic news that included flat retail sales, weak housing numbers, an inversion in the yield curve, and tepid economic data out of China.

Nevertheless, stocks tumbled on Friday amid hawkish comments about future rate hikes, rising bond yields, and ahead of the annual meeting of global central bankers in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, in which Fed Chair Jerome …

The Weekly Update

Week of August 15th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

An improving inflation outlook buoyed investors’ spirits last week, helping lift stocks to solid gains.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2.92%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 3.26%. The Nasdaq Composite index added 3.08% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 2.39%.

Lower Inflation Spurs Buying
Stock prices surged mid-week when the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released a better-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) number, with buying momentum building throughout the trading session.

Gains were significant across the board, with technology and small-cap companies leading the market higher. The mid-week rally sent the S&P 500 to its highest level since May and the Nasdaq to its highest level since April. Bond yields fell on expectations that the Fed’s pressure to hike rates further might ease. After pausing on Thursday, stocks again ripped …

The Weekly Update

Week of August 8th, 2022
By Christopher T. Much, CFP®, AIF®

Stocks turned in a mixed performance last week as investors struggled with headlines suggesting that the Fed was unlikely to soon ease up on its current monetary tightening policy.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.13%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 rose 0.36%. The Nasdaq Composite index picked up 2.15% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, gained 0.23%.

Showing Resilience
Ahead of Friday’s employment report, stocks were generally higher, highlighted by a Wednesday rally triggered by fresh earnings surprises and a better-than-expected economic report. The rally was especially notable because it occurred when multiple Fed officials said that the fight against inflation hadn’t ended, perhaps throwing cold water on the idea that the Fed might pivot due to weakening economic activity and the prospect of cooling inflation.

Aside from this single day of …